Description
Why this matters: Q1 2026 showed a notable per-merchant referral drop after attribution-path concerns were deprioritized, and this can change where the referral team invests next. If this is structural (not seasonality), onboarding + retention strategy assumptions need adjustment.\n\nScope: Quantify Q1 seasonal pattern across prior years, isolate top-10 account concentration effects, and segment decline by merchant size/cohort to determine whether the drop is broad-based or concentrated.\n\nSource signal: projects/referral-team/tickets/2026-04-08-shopify-referral-attribution-recovery.md (open question #3), projects/referral-team/overview.md remaining open items.