referral-onboarding-widgets-causality-question

Started work

From Make Onboarding Great 2026-03-12: Do NOT add widgets/join block to guided setup until we answer the causality question. Glenn's framing: 'Are we seeing merchants that are paid having the widgets turned on because they've decided to go forward with the program? Or is it the fact that they've turned the widgets on the reason why they've decided to pay?' If it's the former (decided to pay → widgets), adding widgets to guided setup is a red herring. If the latter (widgets → decided to pay), nudging earlier could help. Original goal was to simplify setup — adding complexity may reintroduce anxiety we worked to reduce. See [[2026-03-12-make-onboarding-great]], [[make-onboarding-great]]

Data shows activation alone doesn't drive payment (37.3% vs 30.3% for never-activated). The real driver is getting referrals (87.3% paid rate). Adding activation to guided setup is wrong optimization — would move merchants from 'never' to 'activated-no-referrals' which barely helps conversion and worsens retention. Right question: how to get merchants from activation to first referral faster. See [[2026-03-16-activation-payment-analysis]], [[td-914d33]]

Started work

Submitted for review