Description
**Why this matters:** The onboarding leading indicator moved from 65.2% to 51.7% over four weekly readings in March (relative movement >20%), which crosses the referral anomaly trigger threshold and can undermine confidence in onboarding redesign impact assumptions if left unexplained.\n\n**Scope:** Validate whether the movement is signal vs denominator/composition noise; decompose by signup cohort quality (order-estimation bands, trial closure status, immediate-cancel share), and recommend whether this should alter near-term onboarding prioritization.\n\n**Source signal:** projects/referral-team/analysis/2026-04-08-metric-baseline-reading.md; projects/referral-team/strategy/2026-04-08-north-star-tracking-cadence.md.